报告人：James R. Branna(Clemson University Clemson, SC)
James R. Branna教授，1996-2017年：美国克莱姆森大学数学科学系教授，
报告摘要：We present a simple extension of the well-known Solow model of economic growth that describes the statistical behavior of business cycle fluctuations observed in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The extension shows how the network structure of economic supply chains induces a positive feedback loop in macrodynamics that causes the GDP to be very sensitive to small random disturbances in consumption and investment. The model suggests that recessions are inevitable in any well developed capitalistic economic system and that increasing globalization of the world economy will result in economic expansions and contractions that are less likely to be locally confined and more likely to affect economies on a global scale.